The Behavior Gap: What Bad Timing Really Costs
The folklore says your own timing costs you 4% a year. Morningstar's data says 1.2%. A 2026 Financial Analysts Journal paper says the par...
· 8 min read
LedgerTouch Intelligence | Market Analysis & Portfolio Commentary
What CoinShares Crypto Fund Flow Data Really Measures
The weekly digital-asset fund-flow series is widely quoted and routinely misread. Sector AuM fell US$19bn in three weeks of 2026 while ne...
· 6 min read
Energy Transition Metrics That Move Asset Prices
Battery capacity above 4 TWh, 1.7 mb/d of displaced oil, 7 million charge points. Three of the transition's headline metrics never reach ...
· 6 min read
Eurozone Inflation Reaccelerated and the ECB Hiked
Euro area HICP went from 1.9% in February 2026 to 3.2% in May. Energy contributed 128 of those 130 basis points, and the ECB hiked into a...
· 6 min read
How Much Gold? The 5-10% Case and Its 45-Year Problem
The research most often cited for a 5-10% gold weight tests 2.5% to 10%, over the 20 years from 2005. Widen the window and you find a 45-...
· 8 min read
Microsoft Maia 200 and NVIDIA's Pricing Power
Maia 200 shipped in January 2026 with a full published spec. In the two quarters since, NVIDIA's gross margin rose and its data centre re...
· 6 min read
Rebalancing Frequency: Annual vs 5% Threshold Bands
Over 92 years of Vanguard's data, every sensible rebalancing rule landed within 0.2 percentage points a year of every other one. The choi...
· 8 min read
What 20 Years of SPIVA Data Show About Active Funds
Over 20 years, 92% of US large-cap funds trailed the S&P 500. But the odds swing from 70% over 20 years to 100% over 10 years in some cat...
· 8 min read
The Yield Curve in 2026: Positive but Bear-Flattening
The 2s10s spread is +35bp and has been positive since September 2024. It has flattened 39bp this year — and it flattened because the fron...
· 6 min read
China Export Disinflation: The Data Behind the Thesis
US import prices from China fell 1.41% year on year in March 2026 while overall import prices rose 2.26%. Tariffs did not close the chann...
· 5 min read
Brent Hit $138 and Fell Back. The Fed Held at 3.75%.
The OECD raised its 2026 US inflation forecast to 4.2% on an oil shock. Brent has since fallen from $138.21 to $69.56, and core goods inf...
· 4 min read
Warsh's Fed: What Ending the Dot Plot Costs Duration
Kevin Warsh was confirmed 54-45 on 13 May 2026. The dot plot he may end already spans 100 basis points. Here is what its removal does to ...
· 5 min read
Yen Intervention: 11.7 Trillion Yen, No Lasting Effect
Tokyo's first yen-buying intervention since 2024 moved USD/JPY 2.2% on 30 April 2026. Five weeks later the move was gone. A BoJ hike did ...
· 4 min read
Jobs Report: Unemployment Fell as 396,000 Left Work
US unemployment fell to 4.3% in March 2026 — but the labour force shrank by 396,000 and wage growth hit a five-year low of 3.5%. The sign...
· 4 min read
Gold Demand Hit 5,002t in 2025. Jewellery Fell 18%.
Total gold demand set a record at 5,002.3 tonnes in 2025 — up just 1%. Jewellery fell 18%, ETFs swung 804 tonnes, and central banks slowe...
· 4 min read
Salesforce Margins Rose. AI Gross Margins: 52% Projected.
Salesforce guided FY27 operating margin up to 20.9% GAAP. ICONIQ projects 2026 AI product gross margins at 52% — against Salesforce's own...
· 4 min read
NVIDIA at $75B a Quarter: the Depreciation Bill
NVIDIA sold $75.2 billion of data-centre hardware in a single quarter. That figure is the hyperscalers' capital expenditure, and it becom...
· 5 min read
AI Gross Margins Run at 52%. Classic Software: 80-91%
ICONIQ data put gross margin on AI products at a projected 52% for 2026. Adobe's subscription gross margin is 91.1%. Software has acquire...
· 5 min read
EV Sales Top 20 Million: China Took 6 in Every 10
The IEA's Global EV Outlook 2026 puts 2025 electric car sales above 20 million, a quarter of all new cars. China sold more than 13 millio...
· 5 min read
Global Debt at 93.9% of GDP: the Tail Sits at 117%
The IMF's April 2026 Fiscal Monitor puts global public debt at 93.9% of GDP, reaching 100% by 2029. The baseline is not the interesting n...
· 5 min read