Stablecoin Reserves: What Backs the Peg, and When It Broke
Tether's 30 June 2026 attestation shows a 2.24% buffer over a pool that is a quarter gold, bitcoin and loans. Circle's 10-Q shows a 0.32%...
· 13 min read
Markets | LedgerTouch Intelligence
Bitcoin Inflation Hedge: the 27 High-CPI Months
Bitcoin beat US inflation in 10 of the 27 months since 2015 when CPI ran at 4% or more, and lost 55.4% across them. In the months when in...
· 9 min read
Bitcoin Sleeve: 1% Untouched Beat 5% Rebalanced
A 1% bitcoin sleeve nobody rebalanced returned 16.10% a year from the end of 2015. A 5% sleeve rebalanced monthly returned 13.28%. The sm...
· 10 min read
Ethereum vs Bitcoin: Two Risk Profiles, Measured
Over the 10.3 years to September 2026 bitcoin compounded at 64.7% a year and ether at 65.8%. The returns were a coin toss. Ether's volati...
· 10 min read
Bitcoin Equity Correlation Swung From -0.23 to 0.55
Weekly bitcoin and S&P 500 returns correlated 0.19 across 611 weeks. The 52-week rolling window tells a different story: -0.226 in Decemb...
· 9 min read
Crypto Diversification Weakens When Equities Fall
Bitcoin's daily correlation with the S&P 500 was 0.14 when the index sat within 5% of a record and 0.33 once it was 5% or more below one....
· 11 min read
Crypto Drawdowns vs Equity Drawdowns: Depth and Duration
Bitcoin's deepest fall was 83.8% and the Nasdaq Composite's was 77.9%, which is closer than most people expect. The real gap is frequency...
· 11 min read
Bond Funds vs Individual Bonds: Where the Crossover Falls
An individual bond repays par on a date; a bond fund never matures. Priced on 2022’s 236 basis point move in the 10-year Treasury yield, ...
· 11 min read
Commodity Index Returns: Spot, Roll Yield and the T-Bill Leg
A commodity futures index pays you three things: the futures price, the roll, and interest on the collateral. From 2 January 1991 to 31 J...
· 11 min read
Credit Spreads: What the Extra Yield Actually Pays For
Over 1866-2008 corporate credit spreads averaged about 153 basis points a year while actual default losses averaged roughly 75. The rest ...
· 11 min read
Currency Conversion Costs: 0.25% to 0.99% on UK Platforms
Seven UK platforms charge between 0.25% and 0.99% to turn pounds into dollars, and every one of them quotes that margin over a rate you c...
· 12 min read
Bond Duration: What a 1% Rate Move Actually Costs
Duration says a bond loses its duration number in percent for every point yields rise. On a 100bp move that is close enough. On the move ...
· 10 min read
Index-Linked Gilts and TIPS: the Uplift, the Lag and 2022
Index-linked gilts and TIPS uprate your principal against a price index published three months earlier. In 2022 that lag paid more than t...
· 10 min read
Yield Curve Inversion: Every Lead Time Since 1966
Every inverted US yield curve since 1966, matched to the recession that followed it. The lead times run from 5 months to 39 months, two i...
· 13 min read
Ways to Invest in Gold: Bullion, ETCs or Miners
Three ways to invest in gold, compared: miners beat bullion by 2.3 points a year over the decade to May 2026. Strip out one year and the ...
· 10 min read
Institutional Crypto Allocation: 21% of a 13F, 0.8% of Assets
Harvard's bitcoin ETF was 21% of its 13F and 0.8% of its endowment. What institutional crypto allocation really is, and why the case does...
· 10 min read
Buying Gold at a Record High vs a Strategic Weight
Gold set a record $5,405 fix in January 2026. What 58 years of LBMA data show about buying gold at a record high versus holding a fixed r...
· 10 min read
The Debasement Trade: Gold Rose 67%, Bitcoin Fell 6%
Gold rose 67% in 2025 while bitcoin fell 6%. What regressions, panel data and central bank buying really show about the debasement trade ...
· 10 min read
Central Bank Gold Buying Hit 863 Tonnes. Not a Record.
Central bank gold buying reached 863.3 tonnes in 2025, down 21%. What the official sector gold demand data shows, and where the motives s...
· 10 min read
Bitcoin Spot ETFs: Volatility Fell, Correlation Didn't
Bitcoin's volatility fell from 58.3% to 47.5% after the US bitcoin spot ETFs launched, but weekly correlation with the S&P 500 moved 0.00...
· 10 min read
Is Bitcoin Digital Gold? The Correlation Record
Is bitcoin digital gold? Its weekly correlation with the S&P 500 rose from 0.04 to 0.52, and with gold it is 0.11 over a decade. The stre...
· 10 min read
What Crypto Fund Flow Numbers Do Not Tell You
The weekly digital-asset fund-flow series is widely quoted and routinely misread. Sector AuM fell US$19bn in three weeks of 2026 while ne...
· 6 min read
The Energy Transition Metrics That Actually Move Markets
Battery capacity above 4 TWh, 1.7 mb/d of displaced oil, 7 million charge points. Three of the transition's headline metrics never reach ...
· 6 min read
Eurozone Inflation Reaccelerated and the ECB Hiked
Euro area HICP went from 1.9% in February 2026 to 3.2% in May, then 2.8% in June and 2.9% on the July flash. Energy contributed 128 of th...
· 6 min read
How Much Gold in a Portfolio? The 5-10% Case, Tested
The research most often cited for a 5-10% gold weight tests 2.5% to 10%, over the 20 years from 2005. Widen the window and you find a 45-...
· 8 min read
What the Yield Curve Did in 2026, and What It Signals
The 2s10s spread closed at +45bp on 30 July 2026. It flattened 44bp into June and steepened 15bp in July — and in both legs every maturit...
· 6 min read
China Export Disinflation: The Data Behind the Thesis
US import prices from China fell 1.41% year on year in March 2026 while overall import prices rose 2.26%. Tariffs did not close the chann...
· 5 min read
An Oil Price Shock Hit $138 and the Fed Did Nothing
The OECD raised its 2026 US inflation forecast to 4.2% on an oil shock. Brent fell from $138.21 to $69.56 by 6 July 2026 and was back at ...
· 4 min read
What Would Happen If the Fed Scrapped Its Dot Plot
Kevin Warsh was confirmed 54-45 on 13 May 2026. The dot plot he may end already spans 100 basis points. Here is what its removal does to ...
· 5 min read
Yen Intervention: 11.7 Trillion Yen, No Lasting Effect
Tokyo's first yen-buying intervention since 2024 moved USD/JPY 2.2% on 30 April 2026. Five weeks later the move was gone. A BoJ hike did ...
· 4 min read
Jobs Report: Unemployment Fell as 396,000 Left Work
US unemployment fell to 4.3% in March 2026 — but the labour force shrank by 396,000 and wage growth hit a five-year low of 3.5%. The sign...
· 4 min read
Gold Demand 2025 Hit 5,002t. Jewellery Fell 18%.
Total gold demand set a record at 5,002.3 tonnes in 2025 — up just 1%. Jewellery fell 18%, ETFs swung 804 tonnes, and central banks slowe...
· 4 min read
Global EV Sales Top 20 Million: China Took 6 in Every 10
The IEA's Global EV Outlook 2026 puts 2025 electric car sales above 20 million, a quarter of all new cars. China sold more than 13 millio...
· 5 min read
Global Public Debt at 93.9% of GDP: a 117% Tail for 2028
The IMF's April 2026 Fiscal Monitor puts global public debt at 93.9% of GDP, reaching 100% by 2029. The baseline is not the interesting n...
· 5 min read
High-Yield Spreads at 2.84% While the CCC Tail Gaps
The ICE BofA high-yield index spread closed at 2.84% on 30 July 2026, off its June tight. Underneath, the gap between CCC and BB spreads ...
· 5 min read
IMF and World Bank Growth Forecasts: Why They Disagree
The IMF sees 3.0% global growth in 2026 and the World Bank 2.5%. Read like for like, the two institutions are 0.1 percentage points apart...
· 5 min read
Real Yields at 2.41%: Every Basis Point Was Real
The 10-year TIPS yield closed at 2.41% on 30 July 2026 and touched 2.44% three days earlier, its highest since October 2023. Almost the e...
· 5 min read